Wednesday, October 6th, 2010

Conforming loan limits 2011

Conforming mortgages is so named because, literally, they conform to the mortgage guidelines set forth by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Of the many traits of a conforming mortgage, one is “loan size” and loan sizes have limits. Mortgages exceeding this loan size limit cannot be securitized as a conforming mortgage and, therefore, are ineligible for conforming mortgage rates.

Conforming mortgage rates are often the cheapest source of mortgage money for residents of CA , all things equal.

Each year, the government re-evaluates its maximum allowable loan size based on “typical” housing costs nationwide. Loans in excess of this amount are often called “jumbo”.

Between 1980 and 2006, as home prices increased, so did conforming loan limits — from $93,750 to $417,000.  Since 2006, however, home prices have retreated but the conforming loan limit has not.

In 2011, for the 6th consecutive year, $417,000 will be the country’s conforming mortgage loan limit.

Conforming loan limits very by property type. The complete breakdown is as follows:

  • 1-unit properties : $417,000
  • 2-unit properties : $533,850
  • 3-unit properties : $645,300
  • 4-unit properties : $801,950

Despite the limits, some parts of the country get “loan limit exceptions”. In areas considered “high cost”, conforming loan limits range from $417,001 to $729,750. High-cost is defined by the median sales price of a region.

Los Angeles County, for example, is a high-cost region, along with a lot of California. There are less than 200 such areas nationwide, though.

You can verify your local market’s loan limit via the Fannie Mae website. A complete county-by-county list is published online.

Tuesday, October 5th, 2010

Pending Home Sales (Feb 2009 - August 2010)Consistent with calls of a housing rebound, the Pending Home Sales Index rose again in August. It marks the second straight month of improvement after May’s post-tax credit drop-off.

A “pending home” is an existing home under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, 4 out of 5 pending homes close within 60 days, and many more close within 90 days. For this reason, the Pending Home Sales Index is an excellent forward-indicator for housing.

As a real-life illustration, after July’s 27% plunge to an 11-year low, Existing Home Sales recovered 8 percent in August. This was not a surprise, though, because July’s Pending Home Sales Index predicted it.

Region-by-region, the Pending Home Sales Index varied in August, suggesting better sales levels in the South and West markets:

  • Northeast : -2.9% from July
  • Midwest : +2.1% from July
  • South : +6.7% from July
  • West : + 6.4% from July

That said, real estate markets aren’t “regional” — they’re local. Just as there are improving markets within the Northeast Region, there’s worsening markets in the West. And cities like San Mateo have their own market traits, too.

Overall, buyers are being drawn into housing by low mortgage rates, affordable homes, and ample supply. If the August Pending Home Sales Index is foreshadowing the fall housing market, home prices appear slated to rise.

Monday, October 4th, 2010

Ceiling fans lower energy costsWith the start of autumn comes a chill in the Gilroy air, plus a simple way to drop your home’s energy bill. For homeowners with ceiling fans, it’s as simple as moving a button.

In this vintage video from The Weather Channel, you’ll learn how the blades of ceiling fan are meant to work, and how they amplify a home’s heating and cooling systems. You’ll also learn the optimal settings for blade rotation, and how to reverse your room’s air flow to take advantage.

A quick “cheat sheet”:

  • When a home’s heating system is on, rotate fan blades clockwise
  • When a home’s cooling system is on, rotate fan blades counter-clockwise

Running a ceiling fan consumes a nominal amount of energy as compared to adjusting your home’s overall temperature. On a warm day, for example, running a ceiling fan creates a “windchill effect”, reducing a room’s effective temperature by 4 degrees — all with the equivalent power of a 100-watt light bulb.

On a cold day, the fan pushes hot air back from the ceiling where it tends to collect.

If your home is without ceiling fans, installing them is inexpensive and easy.  There’s videos online to walk you through the steps, or you can call a qualified electrician. Need an electricians name? Call or email me — I’m happy to offer a referral in Oakland.

Friday, October 1st, 2010

Expensive ZIP codesThe value of a home is based on the basic economic principle of Supply and Demand. When the number of buyers exceeds the number of sellers, home prices rise. Conversely, when sellers outnumber buyers, home prices fall.

There’s always a opening price point for negotiation and that figure often factors in specifics like square footage, number of rooms, and finishes and amenities. Location matters, too.

On a ZIP code-by-ZIP code basis, prices can vary wildly and it’s tiny, tony 91008 — located in Duarte, California — that tops the 2010 Forbes list of America’s Most Expensive ZIP Codes. Home to fewer than 1,400 residents of Los Angeles County, the ZIP code’s median home cost is $4,276,462.

By contrast, the median home cost across all of Duarte’s ZIP codes is just $358,454.

As listed by Forbes, America’s 10 most expensive ZIP codes are:

  1. Duarte, CA (91008) : $4,276,462
  2. Atherton, CA (94027) : $4,010,200
  3. Rolling Hills, CA (92074) : $3,892,456
  4. Alpine, NJ (07620) : $3,814,885
  5. New York, NY (10014) : $3,785,445
  6. Beverly Hills, CA (90210) : $3,684,150
  7. New York, NY (10065) : $3,626,001
  8. Belvedere (94920) : $3,283,269
  9. New York, NY (10012) : $3,221,371
  10. Santa Barbara (93108) : $3,151,220

The real estate market is a local one, as evidenced by the Forbes list. Even within large cities like New York, there are areas that stand out from the pack in terms of cost and affordability and the same is true for all cities.

Therefore, when you need local market data for Gilroy , look past the “national statistics”.  Talk to a real estate agent with local market knowledge instead. It’s the most reliable way to get data that matters.

Thursday, September 30th, 2010

Housing Market Index (2000-2010)

Home builder confidence held firm this month, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ monthly Housing Market Index. September’s reading of 13 equaled a 17-month low.

The HMI is on a 1-100 scale. A value of 50 or better indicates “favorable conditions” for home builders.

Broken down, the Housing Market Index is actually a weighted composite of 3 separate surveys which measures current single-family sales; projected single-family sales; and foot traffic of prospective buyers.

None of the 3 September surveys improved from August:

  • Single-Family Sales : 13 (unchanged from August)
  • Projected Single-Family Sales : 18 (unchanged from August)
  • Buyer Foot Traffic : 9 (from 10 in August)

Builder confidence is lower in 2010 than at any point in recorded history.

For home buyers in Oakland , the drop in sentiment creates opportunity. With builders feeling “down”, there’s a greater likelihood for discounts and free upgrades. It can mean more house for your home buying money.

Plus, with the supply of both new and existing homes elevated, and foreclosures still hitting the market, conditions aren’t soon likely to change.

Then, couple all that with all-time low mortgage rates and monthly housing payments look as affordable as ever.

If your plans call for buying a home in the early part of 2011, you may want to consider moving up your time frame. Today’s market looks ripe for a good deal.

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

Case-Shiller Change In Home Values June-July 2010

For the 17th straight month, the Case-Shiller Index reports that home values are rising across the United States. As compared to June, July’s prices were up by 4 percent.

However, despite the improvement, July’s Case-Shiller Index showed weaker as compared to prior months.

  • In June, just 3 cities posted year-to-year reductions in home value. In July, 10 of 20 did.
  • In June, just 1 city posted a month-to-month reduction in home value. In July, 7 of 20 did.

As a spokesperson for Case-Shiller said, values “crept forward” in July. But not that it matters — the Case-Shiller Index is a better tool for economists than it is for homeowners in Oakland. This is for 3 reasons.

First, the Case-Shiller Index is on a 60-day delay but real estate sales are based on prices today. A lot can change in 60 days, and it often does. Therefore, the Case-Shiller Index is a better snapshot of the former market than the current one.

Second, the Case-Shiller Index is geographically-limited. It tracks just 20 cities, ignoring some of the largest metropolitan areas in the country including Houston, Philadelphia, and San Jose. Smaller cities like Tampa are included.

And, lastly, national real estate data remains somewhat useless anyway. All real estate is local, rendering citywide statistics too broad to have any real meaning to an individual. To find out what’s happening on a neighborhood-by-neighborhood level, you can’t look to a national survey — you have to look to a local real estate agent instead.

Monday, September 27th, 2010

A kitchen is often a home’s busiest room — a meeting place for meals and conversation. It’s also among the home’s most grimy rooms. Bacteria, dirt and germs collect on floors, on countertops, and inside appliances.

In this 4-minute clip from NBC’s The Today Show, you’ll learn how to rid your kitchen of “nastiness”.  The featured fixes use nothing but basic household cleansers and elbow grease, and they include:

  • How to clean and restore wooden cutting boards and bowls
  • How to remove “burn stains” from the side of a frying pan
  • How to eliminate pervasive dishwasher odors

The segment also tackles why you should choose loofah over sponge, and how to catch fruit flies.

For as much time as you spend in your kitchen, it’s best to keep it clean and sanitized.

Friday, September 24th, 2010

Existing Home Supply (August 2009 - Augsut 2010)Sales of existing homes in recovered in August, perhaps the result of a post-tax credit normalization.

As compared to July, Existing Home Sales rose 8 percent in August, buoyed by falling interest rates and slow-to-rise home prices. There’s lot of “good deals” out there and home buyers in Oakland are taking advantage.

The housing gains are relative, however. August’s total units sold barely crossed 4 million and still trails the average figures of the last few years by close to 1 million units.

Despite that, the August Existing Home Sales report can be considered a strong one. This is for several reasons:

  1. Sales volume increased in August without tax credit or government intervention
  2. Sales growth is not limited by geography. All 4 regions — Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, and West — showed improvement last month.
  3. Repeat buyers are driving the market, representing 48 percent of sales, up from forty-three percent in July.

And, perhaps most important to the housing market market, the number of available home resales dropped by almost one full month last month.  At the current sales pace, the national inventory would be depleted in 11.6 months.

For home buyers, the data presents an interesting opportunity. With average mortgage rates rising from their best levels ever and home affordability cresting in places like Gilroy , this autumn may represent the turn-around point for the housing market nationwide.

If you’re planning to move in early-2011, consider moving up your time frame.

Thursday, September 23rd, 2010

Housing starts September 2008 - August 2010The number of single-family Housing Starts rebounded in August, climbing 4 percent from July’s 14-month low.

A “Housing Start” is defined as a home on which construction has started and the August increase represents 18,000 single-family units nationwide.

If you only read the headlines, however, you would think the data was stronger. This is because the Housing Starts data is actually a composite of 3 types of homes — single-family, multi-family, and apartments — but  the press tends to lump them all three together.

As a sampling, here are a some headlines on the story:

  • US Stock Futures Rise After Housing Starts Surge (WSJ)
  • Housing Starts At 4-Month High, Hint At Stability (Fox)
  • Housing Starts Jump 10.5% In August (Marketwatch)

Now, it’s not that the news is wrong, per se, it’s just not necessarily relevant.  Few home buyers  in San Jose are buying multi-family homes or entire apartment complexes. Most buy single-family and, for the first time since April, single-family starts are on the rise — just not by as much as you’d believe from the papers.

Even still, we can’t be entirely sure that the August Housing Starts data is accurate anyway.

A footnote in the Department of Commerce report shows that, although single-family starts are said to have increased 4 percent, the data’s margin of error exceeds its actual measurement, meaning the data has “zero confidence”.

In other words, starts may have dropped in August, but it’s something we won’t know for sure until revisions are made later this year.

Tuesday, September 21st, 2010

Putting the FOMC statement in plain EnglishToday, in its 7th meeting of the year, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged. 

The Fed Funds Rate remains at a historical low, within a Fed’s target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC said that the pace of economic recovery “has slowed” in recent months. Household spending is increasing but remains restrained by high levels of unemployment, falling home values, and restrictive credit.

For the second straight month, the Federal Reserve showed less economic optimism as compared to the prior year’s worth of FOMC statements dating back to June 2009. However, the Fed still expects growth to be “modest in the near-term”.

This outlook is consistent with recent research showing that the recession is over, and that growth has resumed — albeit at a slower pace than what was originally expected.

The Fed also highlighted strengths in the economy:

  1. Growth is ongoing on a national level
  2. Inflation levels remain exceedingly low
  3. Business spending is rising

As expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”.

There were no surprises in the Fed’s statement so, as a result, the mortgage market’s reaction to the release has been neutral. Mortgage rates in CA are thus far unchanged this afternoon.

The FOMC’s next meeting is a 2-day affair scheduled for November 2-3, 2010.